Content from IASW Contributors

Inside the ‘Cubanochavista’ Electoral Machine

Roger NoriegaCAs the facts behind Nicolás Maduro’s fabricated electoral “victory” on April 14 are disclosed, his legitimacy and ability to govern will be decimated. Reams of confidential official documents obtained from Venezuelan sources reveal the existence of a sophisticated political machine – developed and managed by Cuban advisors – that gives chavista party bosses an unfair advantage in mobilizing their voters and manipulating election results.

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Entendiendo la maquinaria electoral ‘Cubanochavista’

Roger NoriegaA medida que se dan a conocer los hechos detrás de la “victoria” electoral fabricada de Nicolás Maduro, se ha ido desvaneciendo su legitimidad y capacidad de gobernar. Resmas de documentos oficiales confidenciales obtenidos de fuentes venezolanas revelan la existencia de una maquinaria política sofisticada- desarrollada y gestionada por asesores cubanos– que le da a los jefes chavistas una ventaja injusta en la movilización de votantes y en la manipulación de resultados.

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Capriles expects Venezuela vote ruling ‘within hours’

| May 16th, 2013 | No Comments »
From AFP

JORDI MIRO

CARACAS — Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles, narrowly defeated at the polls by the late Hugo Chavez’s successor, said the Supreme Court will decide very soon whether a new presidential vote should be held.

In an interview Wednesday with AFP, Capriles warned that if the answer was no, he would bring his fight to “international bodies.” He insists the election was stolen from him.

“Within hours, we are going to have a decision on whether (the Supreme Court) accepts” the opposition’s bid to hold new elections, he said.

The Miranda state governor, who has not conceded the race, which the National Electoral Board says Nicolas Maduro won by 1.49 points, said that if the high court takes on the legal case, it should last about three or four months but the country’s court system is not known for its swiftness.

Capriles has filed two complaints: one over the electoral process in general and ... Read More

Understanding Pena Nieto’s Approach to the Cartels

| May 16th, 2013 | No Comments »
Stratfor

By Scott Stewart Vice President of Analysis

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto’s approach to combating Mexican drug cartels has been a much-discussed topic since well before he was elected. Indeed, in June 2011 — more than a year before the July 2012 Mexican presidential election — I wrote an analysis discussing rumors that, if elected, Pena Nieto was going to attempt to reach some sort of accommodation with Mexico’s drug cartels in order to bring down the level of violence.

Such rumors were certainly understandable, given the arrangement that had existed for many years between some senior members of Pena Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party and some powerful cartel figures during the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s long reign in Mexico prior to the election of Vicente Fox of the National Action Party in 2000. However, as we argued in 2011 and repeated in March 2013, much has changed in Mexico since 2000, and the new reality in Mexico means ... Read More

Venezuela’s Maduro buries hatchet with billionaire businessman

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in Reuters

BY DIEGO ORE

CARACAS – Socialist leader Nicolas Maduro and the billionaire boss of Venezuela’s biggest private company have buried the hatchet after a war of words over food shortages and other economic problems in the South American nation.

Perpetuating the hard-line rhetoric of his predecessor Hugo Chavez, newly-elected Maduro turned on Empresas Polar president Lorenzo Mendoza in recent days, accusing him of hoarding products as part of an “economic war” on the state by private business.

Mendoza, whose company is Venezuela’s biggest beer- and flour-maker, denied that and pointedly challenged the government to sell production plants nationalized under Chavez back to the private sector to boost efficiency.

On Tuesday night, the pair met to discuss their differences in a spat seen by Venezuelans as a bellwether for state-business relations going forward under Maduro’s government.

Both sides came out of the meeting sounding reconciliatory and pledging to work together to overcome food shortages that have ... Read More

Where does Latin America stand?

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Miami Herald

BY CARLOS ALBERTO MONTANER

How’s your wife? It depends — compared to whom?

That’s a frequent dialogue among witty Spaniards. I imagine that women could respond the same way. We husbands fare badly when compared with Brad Pitt, much better if contrasted with Eduardo Gómez, the super-ugly doorman’s father in the comedy series Nobody Can Live Here on Spanish TV.

The same happens with countries and regions. To understand where we stand, we have to know where the others are and at what pace we move.

All this becomes relevant apropos the recent report on the most successful countries in Latin America. According to the news, the three wealthiest economies in Latin America are Chile, Panama (which has been growing at the rate of 8 percent for almost a decade) and Uruguay.

Argentina is relegated to fourth place, a fact perhaps explained by its lack of transparency. The government of Cristina Kirchner adulterates the rate of inflation ... Read More

Mexico: Uphill battle joined in effort to restructure oil industry

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Financial Times

BY ADAM THOMPSON

In 1976, Rudesindo Cantarell arrived at Pemex’s offices in the Mexican Gulf city of Coatzacoalcos demanding compensation for damage that crude oil seepage had caused to his fishing nets.

His complaint alerted officials of the state oil company to what would become one of the world’s five biggest oil finds. For Mexico, it promised energy security and tens of billions of dollars a year for the state.

Today, the discovery is a distant memory. Production, which topped 2m barrels a day in the early 2000s, is now about 400,000 barrels.

Against this backdrop, Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s reform-minded president, has proposed what could be the biggest shake-up of his country’s energy industry since the government nationalised the sector in the 1930s. Before he assumed power in December last year, Mr Peña Nieto said Mexico had been a hostage to ideology and it was time to open up oil to private investment.

Even with the ... Read More

In Mexico, restrictions on U.S. agents signal drug war shift

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
From the Washington Post

BY NICK MIROFF

MEXICO CITY — The recent changes ordered by new President Enrique Peña Nieto to Mexico’s anti-narcotics partnership with the United States have produced markedly different reactions here and in Washington, underscoring what appear to be diverging perceptions of the drug war’s goals and the costs of fighting it.

Peña Nieto’s decision to limit the ability of American agents to operate in Mexico has been met with dismay by U.S. law enforcement agencies, which left a heavy footprint under the previous administration of Felipe Calderon. They warn that intelligence sharing will suffer if they can no longer choose which Mexican force — the army, navy or federal police — to give sensitive information to; they’ve been instructed to now funnel everything through Mexico’s Interior Ministry instead.

The agents also caution that the personal relationships developed under Calderon will fray if they are no longer welcome to work side by side with trusted partners ... Read More

Colombia: Hit man in Bogota targeting high-profile journalists

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in Reuters

BY HELEN MURPHY

BOGOTA – Colombia’s government warned on Tuesday of a plot by a criminal group to kill several high-profile journalists just weeks after the attempted assassination of an investigative reporter boosted concerns over threats to a free press in the violence-plagued Andean nation.

President Juan Manuel Santos also announced that 90 journalists are being given protection by the government. He urged Attorney General Eduardo Montealegre to investigate attacks against journalists.

“In this government, we’re totally committed to get to the very bottom of the problems that undermine this fundamental right to be well-informed that all Colombians have,” Santos said at an event to promote media rights.

Journalists and investigators have long been the target of attacks and threats in Colombia, allegedly carried out by corrupt politicians, drug lords, Marxist rebels and right-wing paramilitary leaders to silence coverage that may damage their interests.

A hit man has entered the Colombian capital to kill columnist ... Read More

Arkansas rastrea a una ‘teniente’ del cártel del Golfo

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Excelsior

LITTLE ROCK (Arkansas), 15 de mayo.- Una integrante de alto rango de un cártel mexicano de las drogas fue acusada en un caso de confabulación en Arkansas, después de que su hijo supuestamente reclutó a reos en prisiones federales en ese estado para distribuir la cocaína de la organización cuando salieran de la cárcel, informaron el martes los fiscales.

Idalia Ramos Rangel, su hijo Mohammed “Mo” Martínez y otras 14 personas vinculadas con Arkansas, Texas y México fueron acusadas de confabularse para poseer cocaína con intención de distribuirla, según el encausamiento de un jurado de instrucción dado a conocer el martes.

Los fiscales federales afirman que Ramos Rangel, de 57 años, es una “teniente y capitán” en el cártel del Golfo que opera una organización responsable del tráfico de cientos de kilogramos de cocaína en Arkansas y otros lugares de Estados Unidos.

“La mayoría de las drogas en Arkansas llegan de México, específicamente (a través) del cártel del Golfo”, dijo Christopher Thyer, fiscal federal del Distrito Este ... Read More

Bloom is off Chicago’s Ecuador connection

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Chicago Business

BY PAUL MERRION

The expiration of trade incentives for Ecuador this summer could wilt a new flower distribution center at O’Hare International Airport just as it’s about to get off the ground.

The joint venture developing the nearly $2 million refrigerated processing center expects to have it ready by July, and a rose exporter from Ecuador has been lined up to start bringing two flights a week into Chicago.

But on July 31, the cost of importing cut roses from Ecuador will jump 7 percent when duty-free treatment under the Andean Trade Preference Act expires, reinstating the U.S. tariff in that amount.

Ecuador has expressed great interest in the O’Hare center, and “their support on the project is very crucial,” said Shlomo Danieli, a flower grower in Wilmette and one of three partners in the O’Hare flower distribution center. “If we have to pay a tax, it will put a burden on the project, but it ... Read More

Venezuela se arruina por tener la gasolina más barata del mundo

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
ABC Madrid-01

LUDMILA VINOGRADOFF

Llenar un tanque de 40 litros de gasolina súper de 95 octanos cuestamenos de 1 dólar en Venezuela. Además de tener la gasolina más barata del mundo debe importar un tercio de su consumo, lo que arruina sus finanzas, siendo productor y exportador mundial de petróleo.

Es difícil imaginar que estas contradicciones puedan ocurrir en un país considerado como el quinto exportador de crudo con una industria petrolera que era el orgullo nacional y referente mundial de eficiencia antes de que cayera en manos del chavismo hace 14 años.

Con las dos últimas devaluaciones de la moneda al tipo de cambio de 4,30 a 6,30 bolívares por dólar decretadas este año por el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro, el precio de la gasolina se ha deteriorado mucho más: el litro de gasolina de 95 octanos pasó de 0,022 dólares a costar 0,015 dólares, medido a la tasa de cambio oficial.

El precio de la gasolina nunca ha estado ... Read More

Partido de Correa toma el control del Congreso

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
El Nuevo Herald

Quito – El oficialismo de izquierda asumió el martes el control del Congreso de Ecuador al iniciarse una nueva legislatura en la que tendrá mayoría absoluta, previo a la asunción del reelecto presidente Rafael Correa el 24 de mayo.

Las sesiones para el período legislativo 2013-2017 comenzaron con la elección de las nuevas autoridades y resultó designada presidenta la exgobernadora Gabriela Rivadeneira, de 29 años.

Rivadeneira obtuvo la mayor votación de un candidato en las elecciones del pasado 17 de febrero (3,5 millones de sufragios), en las que Correa fue reelecto en primera vuelta para un segundo mandato de cuatro años y su movimiento, Alianza País (AP), logró 100 de los 137 escaños parlamentarios.

Desde que Correa asumió el poder en 2007, es la primera vez que la AP logra la mayoría absoluta en la Asamblea unicameral.

Rivadeneira, quien se convirtió en la primera mujer en presidir el Parlamento ecuatoriano, fue elegida con 107 votos. ... Read More

Big Labor Was Bigtime Wrong On Trade With Colombia

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Investor's Business Daily

Commerce: Big Labor worked hard to halt the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement, claiming it threatened our economy and our workers. But a year since its passage, the pact has surpassed all expectations. Where’s the mea culpa?

If there was ever a reason to declare Big Labor’s credibility at zero on matters economic, the best example would be in its long, pathetic tocsins over free trade with Colombia.

Today, exactly a year since the pact went into effect, U.S. exports to Colombia have risen 13% while Colombia’s to the U.S. are up 3.4% — for a total of $28.5 billion in no-tariff trade. Net gains for both economies, in other words, but with the U.S. showing four times as many.

This lopsided result may well be because most Colombian goods already entered the U.S. tariff-free as part of preferences given in exchange for that country’s war on drugs. The Colombian peso has also strengthened along ... Read More

Canadian, British executives face corruption charges in Cuba

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in Reuters

BY MARK FRANK

Canadian and British executives of three foreign businesses shut in 2011 by Cuban authorities, ostensibly for corrupt practices, have been charged after more than a year in custody and are expected to go on trial soon, sources close to the cases told Reuters.

The arrests, part of a broad government campaign to stamp out corruption, sent shockwaves through Cuba’s small foreign business community where the companies were among the most visible players.

Until then, expulsions rather than imprisonment had been the norm for those accused of corrupt practices.

The charges against the executives involve various economic crimes and operating beyond the limits of their business licenses on the communist-run island, according to the sources, who asked to remain anonymous and who include a close relative of one of the defendants.

Some of the foreigners are alleged to have paid bribes to officials in exchange for business opportunities.

Dozens of Cuban state purchasers and ... Read More

How food shortages are dividing Venezuela

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
BBC

BY IRENE CASELLI

Some 30 people are queuing outside a state-run supermarket in the 23 de Enero neighbourhood in Caracas.

A woman walks out with a bag in her hands. “There is milk!” she says enthusiastically, much to the delight of the other customers.

Milk is one of the products that are not easily available in Venezuela. Others include toilet paper, sugar, cooking oil and the cornflour used to make arepas, Venezuela’s national dish.

According to data from Venezuela’s Central Bank, the scarcity index rose to 21% last month, the highest since the bank started tracking the measure in 2009.

This means that out of 100 goods, 21 are not available.

Patience

When certain staples such as milk are available, queues inside and outside supermarkets become longer.

But shoppers at the government-run Mercal supermarket do not seem to mind. “There are always queues, but we need to be patient,” says Raul Espana, a 63-year-old retiree.

Saving on food ... Read More

Argentina’s Deadbeat Special: Buy a 4% Bond or Go to Jail

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article appeared in Bloomberg

BY PABLO GONZALEZ & KATIA PORZECANSKI

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner wants tax evaders hiding about $160 billion in dollars to help finance Argentina’s oil-producing ambitions. Her offer: Buy a 4 percent bond or face the prospect of jail time.

The tax authority announced the plan May 7, highlighting its information-sharing agreements with 40 nations and warning Argentines who don’t use the three-month amnesty window that they risk fines or arrest. Evaders have two options for their cash and the only one paying interest will be a dollar bond due in 2016 to finance YPF SA (YPF), the state oil company. The 4 percent rate is a third the average 13.85 yield on Argentine debt and less than the 4.6 percent in emerging markets.

A year after seizing YPF, Fernandez is funneling more money into the nation’s energy industry as the government struggles to boost production from the world’s third-biggest shale oil reserves. With Argentina already committed to pumping ... Read More

Venezuelan opposition TV channel Globovision sold

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
BBC

Venezuelan opposition TV channel Globovision has been sold and will change its editorial line, according to a statement published on its website.

One of the new managers, Leopoldo Castillo, said it would gradually move its editorial line “toward the centre”.

The channel is known for its fierce opposition to the left-wing government of late President Hugo Chavez, and that of his successor, Nicolas Maduro.

The government has repeatedly fined it and accused it of “poisoning society”.

‘Mixed feelings’

Globovision was widely seen as the only terrestrial TV station which dared to be openly critical of Mr Chavez.

Outgoing director of Globovision Guillermo Zuloaga, who had led the channel for 18 years, asked viewers to give the new management “the benefit of the doubt”.

In a letter to station staff, he said he “had mixed feelings” about the sale.

“Unfortunately, the authoritarian government led by Hugo Chavez never liked our attitude and our mission to tell the truth ... Read More

Ecuador’s Congress Starts New Period With Correa Backer In Majority

| May 15th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal

BY MERCEDES ALVARO

QUITO, Ecuador–Ecuador’s Congress begins a new legislative period Tuesday, with the ruling party tied to President Rafael Correa in control.

Alianza Pais secured 100 of the 137 seats and is preparing to pass several laws considered key for leftist President Correa, whose third term will begin on May 24.

Alianza Pais lawmakers have already defined the legislative agenda for the first 100 days, giving priority to a controversial media law, regulations to redistribute idle land, and mining sector reforms, among other proposals.

“We worked for two months to prepare the agenda for the first 100 days,” said Juan Carlos Cassinelli, a lawmaker of Alianza Pais and former Vice President of the National Assembly. “There are about 130 laws that should be treated by lawmakers.”

Mr. Correa won re-election on Feb. 17, with 57% of the vote and topped his closest opponent by almost 35 percentage points.

Political analysts say the majority in Congress ... Read More

Por qué otorgarle una visa al representante de un gobierno ilegítimo?

| May 14th, 2013 | No Comments »
By Roger Noriega

El pasado 23 de abril, el espurio venezolano, Nicolás Maduro, designó a Calixto Ortega como su nuevo representante diplomático ante los Estados Unidos. Su intención dijo, es la de “mejorar” las relaciones diplomáticas con EE.UU.

Es difícil creer que Maduro realmente crea lo que dice cuando sus acciones simbolizan lo contrario. Un día después de la designación de Ortega, Maduro anunció la captura de un supuesto “espía” estadounidense al que acusó de planear acciones desestabilizadoras en contra de su gobierno y de querer provocar una “guerra civil”. Timothy Hallett Tracy es un cineasta que estaba documentando la elección en Venezuela. Su injusta captura es una señal más de la desesperación Cubanomadurista.

Si queremos ser congruentes con nuestros principios, debemos pedir la liberación inmediata de Timothy Hallett Tracy y negar la visa diplomática de Calixto Ortega.  Aunque Tracy sea liberado no podemos otorgar una visa como si esto fuera el pago de un ... Read More

The End of the Castros?

| May 14th, 2013 | No Comments »
The American Spectator

BY ALBERTO DE LA CRUZ

On the Friday of the last weekend in February, Cuban dictator Raul Castro caught the news agencies covering his island nation by surprise when he dropped a hint that he was thinking of retiring. Later that Sunday, at a meeting of Cuba’s communist National Assembly, Castro went much further and announced that he would step aside at the end of the five-year presidential term to which he had just been “elected.” Adding fuel to the fire was the announcement that Miguel Diaz-Canel, a relatively unknown 52-year-old communist party apparatchik, had been appointed Castro’s second in command—and would thus theoretically be next in line to take command after the aging dictator’s exit.

Naturally, journalists, analysts, and so-called Cuba experts immediately began to explore the possibilities and ramifications. Many of them proposed the Western Hemisphere’s bloodiest and longest-running dictatorship was now possibly just five years away from its end. ... Read More

Venezuela Food Maker Denies Blame for Shortages

| May 14th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in the Associated Press

BY KARL RITTER & FABIOLA SANCHEZ

Venezuela’s biggest food company on Monday hit back at President Nicolas Maduro’s claims that it’s to blame for the country’s persistent food shortages.

The chief executive of Empresas Polar, Lorenzo Mendoza, rejected accusations by the president that the company has reduced production and is hoarding products to create scarcity.

“The accusations that we are producing less than last year are false,” Mendoza told reporters. “I presume that President Nicolas Maduro is not well informed about the situation and about what’s happening.”

Mendoza said his company has increased production of cornmeal by 10 percent in the past four months, and he offered to buy or rent government-owned corn processing plants to boost output event further.

Shortages of basic foods including sugar, milk, butter and cornmeal are a recurring annoyance to consumers in this oil-rich nation of 30 million people. Cornmeal is a crucial ingredient in arepas, or corn cakes, a ... Read More

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