BY MARIE DELCAS

Last month the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chávez, convened the first session of the council of state. Opposition parties are convinced the aim is to avoid a power vacuum. The decision certainly confirms the impression that the transition process is under way.

The first topic on the council’s agenda is Venezuela‘s withdrawal from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, which Chávez condemns as a tool of “US imperialism”.

The president, who has cancer, returned to Cuba to continue radiation therapy. Before leaving he acknowledged that these were not “easy days”, but said he was still “a warrior for facing adversity [...] with faith in God and Christ the Redeemer”. Returning home, Chávez and said the therapy was successful.

The subject is so sensitive for United Socialist party (PSUV) militants that almost no one dares to discuss it openly. But everyone wants to know who will replace Chávez.

Since January Chávez has spent more than a ... Read More

The May 2012 issue of the venerable Jane’s Intelligence Review features an interesting and in-depth analysis of the political situation in Venezuela leading up to October’s presidential election and beyond. It takes as its starting point that the mystery regarding the severity of Hugo Chávez’s illness indicates that the months ahead are unlikely to be smooth. It then posits various scenarios for the possible course of events, systematically assessing how Venezuela’s stability across a range of fronts will be influenced by whatever direction those events take.

Jane’s concedes that the lack of official transparency about Chávez’s health complicates any effort to predict outcomes. That same obfuscation, however, raises the destabilization factor: the lack of a succession plan has led to Chávez’s PSUV party being “riven with factional divisions” — primarily breaking down along military and civilian lines.

The individual to watch is Diosdado Cabello, currently head of the National Assembly and a former Chávez ... Read More

BY CARLOS ALBERTO MONTANER

The most complex part of the inheritance left by Hugo Chávez are the relations between Venezuela and Cuba. The existing ones were built on the strange emotional, political and ideological subordination of the Bolivarian leader to Fidel Castro and do not respond to the interests or preferences of the Venezuelans.

In survey after survey, more than 82 percent of Venezuelans (meaning that many of them are pro-Chávez) responded that they don’t want the installation of a political model based on Cuba. Presumably, a similar percentage does not agree that Venezuela should continue to subsidize, with billions of dollars, the pig-headed and unproductive collectivism imposed by the Castro brothers.

Why did Chávez turn Venezuela into Cuba’s deep-pocketed financier? The reasons are several, but the most important one is that the lieutenant colonel found in Fidel Castro a sort of spiritual and political guide who advised him what to do and ... Read More

BY MARIANO CASTILLO

With his health in question and speculation rampant about his future, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has named 10 Venezuelans to an influential commission.

The Council of State, as it is known, is stipulated in the Venezuelan Constitution as the highest circle of advisers to the president, but has never actually been formed.

Now in a battle with cancer, Chavez announced in January that it was time to constitute the council, and Wednesday named his appointments.

Venezuelans and international observers alike are likely to scrutinize his choices for any signs of transition or succession should Chavez become incapacitated.

Chavez’s choices include a veteran of his administration, a military man and a writer, among others.

The president of the council will be Vice President Elias Jaua, as the constitution stipulates.

Chavez named five principal members. Among them are Jose Vincente Rangel, a journalist who came to hold a number of posts under Chavez, including foreign minister, ... Read More

BY TIM PADGETT

Get your personal affairs in order. It’s the hardest thing doctors have to tell cancer patients who are as ill as media reports suggest Hugo Chávez is. With an election looming in less than five months, the 57-year-old Venezuelan President would also need to get his political affairs in order – and many believe the socialist leader took the first step last week when, before going to Cuba for more treatment, he named a “council of state” as a presidential consulting body. But the council’s murky role is now as much a source of morbid speculation as Chávez’s health is, and that has raised the level of tension and uncertainty inside the home of the western hemisphere’s largest oil reserves.

When Chávez announced the council on May 1 — its eight members, including Vice President Elías Jaua, are all loyal Chavistas — he only ordered it to draft a plan for withdrawing Venezuela ... Read More

BY KEJAL VYAS & EZEQUIEL MINAYA

CARACAS—Venezuela’s cancer-stricken president, Hugo Chávez, resurfaced Monday night after a week’s silence, telling a state television show via telephone that he will be back in Venezuela in coming days and is in the final stages of his radiation treatment.

He also said he is ready to campaign for re-election, but speculation is rife in the oil-rich South American country that his health is worsening and that he may not be fit to run, or if he wins, be able to serve out a third six-year term.

Since April 13, the socialist leader has made just one live public appearance, a brief speech he gave April 30 in which he didn’t move from his podium. “These are not easy days,” an emotional Mr. Chávez admitted during that last live speech before flying to Havana a week ago for more radiation therapy to treat an undisclosed type of cancer.

His ... Read More

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is battling cancer. Health problems began to pop up for him a year ago. Here are some key dates, according to government statements, local media accounts and CNN reporting:

May 9, 2011 — Chavez calls in to Venezuelan state television and says that he’s canceling a scheduled trip to Brazil because of debilitating pain in his knee requiring doctor-ordered bed rest.

June 5-7, 2011 — Chavez visits Brazil and Ecuador and heads to Cuba, scheduled as the third leg of an international trip.

June 10, 2011 — Venezuelan government officials announce that doctors in Cuba performed emergency surgery on Chavez to treat a pelvic abscess.

June 23, 2010 — Venezuelan government officials go on the offensive as media reports suggest Chavez could have cancer. In a Twitter post, Venezuelan Vice Foreign Minister Temir Porras said Chavez’s enemies should “stop dreaming,” adding that “the only thing that has metastasized is the ... Read More

BY CATHERINE E. SHOICHET

It started with an unscheduled phone call to an evening TV show.

The voice of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez crackled over the state television speakers.

“I have some news that is not very good,” he said on May 9, 2011, describing what he said was debilitating pain in his left knee that forced him to abruptly cancel a trip to Brazil and go on doctor-ordered bed rest.

“Surgery could be necessary,” he continued. “They’re evaluating that, but anyway, it is my responsibility to inform the country. Here I am, in battle.”

A year later, the battle hasn’t stopped.

Over a span of weeks, what started with announcements about a knee injury became something much more serious. First, an emergency surgery in Cuba for what government officials described as a pelvic abscess.

Then, days of silence from a leader known for lengthy speeches and rapid-fire Twitter posts.

Venezuelan officials went on the offensive when media ... Read More

BY CORINA PONS & JOSE OROZCO

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez plans to return to his country from Cuba in the “coming days” and said he’ll soon be on the “front lines” of his effort to extend his 13-year rule in an October election.

“I’ll emerge from this special situation in the following days,” said Chavez, who spoke on state television last night via telephone. “The campaign starts in July, August, September, and I’m going to work very hard.”

Chavez, who is undergoing treatment for an undisclosed cancer, said his goal is to win the October election with 70 percent of the vote even as he faces speculation his illness is worse than what he has disclosed. Since June, he has undergone three operations and several rounds of chemotherapy and radiation treatment in Cuba.

Chavez, 57, said he continues on the communist island to receive radiation therapy, physical therapy and to rest.

Last week, Chavez created ... Read More

BY BRIAN ELLSWORTH & ANDREW CAWTHORNE

President Hugo Chavez broke a week-long silence on Monday to deny he had left Venezuela rudderless during cancer treatment in Cuba and to promise a resounding re-election win in October.

“I’m governing – fulfilling my duties as head of state – but in this unique situation which I will be out of in the next few days,” Chavez told state TV in a brief phone call, his voice sounding firm and energetic.

“Soon I will be back there.”

Chavez’s normally ubiquitous media presence had slowed to a trickle of Tweets in recent days. He had not made any live contact with state media in the past week since a public appearance last Monday before leaving for Cuba to receive treatment.

His unusual silence had fanned opposition criticism he was no longer properly running the OPEC nation and spurred unprecedented talk of a successor to the former soldier, who during 13 ... Read More

He’s embraced everything about socialism: its ideas, its beliefs, its leaders. But there is one thing that makes Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez stand apart from other Marxist ideologues – his religious doctrine.

Chávez, who loves to pal around with leftist leader and famed atheist Fidel Castro, has drawn inspiration from a different type of leader – Jesus Christ – now that he’s in a prolonged battle against cancer.

Chávez has been praying for divine intervention during increasingly infrequent appearances on television, holding up a crucifix while vowing to overcome his illness. He says living with cancer has made him “more Christian,” talk that has spurred speculation that cancer might cut short his bid for re-election in October.

Chávez’s voice cracked with emotion as he bade farewell to aides and supporters in Caracas on April 30 before leaving for what he said would be his final round of cancer treatment in Cuba.

“I’m sure our ... Read More

BY RAY WALSER

Since 1999,Venezuelahas continued sliding deeper into authoritarianism, populism, militarism, and anti-Americanism. Displaying formidable skills in winning elections, demagoguery, and public showmanship, Hugo Chavez has dominated Venezuela’s polarized politics and run his country as a personal fiefdom for more than a decade.

This situation may be about to change. In the past two years, two things have occurred to make one think differently about Venezuela. The first was the announcement in mid-2011 that Chavez is suffering from an undisclosed but aggressive cancer. The second was selection of a single opposition candidate—Henri Capriles Radonski—in February 2012 to stand against Chavez in the October presidential election.

Faced with a serious electoral challenge, Chavez has been commuting back and forth to Havanasince February. Physical evidence and steady outpourings of the rumor factory say that despite three surgeries and other treatments, Chavez’s health continues to deteriorate. Incapacity and/or death appear increasingly probable within months. Recent tearful public appearances ... Read More

BY NICK MIROFF

HAVANA, Cuba — Ask Cubans what the worst years of the so-called “Special Period” were like, right after the Soviet Union’s demise dumped the island’s economy in a ditch, and you’re likely to hear a recitation of the era’s most notorious menu options.

Sautéed rags. Burgers made from grapefruit rinds. Cat-meat stew.

Apocryphal or not, the stories of Cuban desperation are so much a part of popular lore that they now serve as shorthand for Cuba’s lowest point, in the early 1990s, a time of acute hardship the island has been trying to recover from ever since.

Now, with Hugo Chavez and his Cuban oncologists locked in a mortal battle with an undisclosed form of cancer — and the Venezuelan president facing uncertain re-election in October — Cubans are wondering if hard times are coming back. If so, how hard will they be?

The Venezuelan leader supplies the island with about two-thirds ... Read More

BY JUAN NAGEL

The probability that Hugo Chávez may soon leave the political stage is increasing. Which member of his movement is poised to lead it?

Information on Hugo Chávez’s health over the past year has been heavy on innuendo and short on fact. But in recent weeks, Chávez has virtually disappeared from the public airwaves, which suggests that his condition is serious. During his rare public appearances, he appeared sickly and unwell. On two recent occasions, he broke down and cried while pleading for his life.

In short, this is a very sick man who may not have much longer to live. The question that begs asking, then, is who can lead the chavista movement in the post-Chávez years?

There are four possible candidates for president who are regularly discussed, plus two game-changing wild cards. At the top of many people’s lists is Diosdado Cabello, a former military man who was discharged after participating in ... Read More

BY ANNA PELEGRI

CARACAS — President Hugo Chavez’s repeated trips to Cuba for cancer treatment and the government’s silence about his health are fueling rumors that he will name a successor to run in October presidential elections.

So far, the government has fiercely maintained that there is no alternative to Chavez, who still leads in the polls. But several names have begun to circulate among observers to take the helm should Chavez delegate his powers.

Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro, Vice President Elias Jaua and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello are considered potential candidates. They are already cited in polls, triggering speculation over the ramifications of a possible succession battle.

Any departure of Chavez from the national stage would have profound consequences in Venezuela, where he has governed since 1999. It would also have a huge impact across Latin America, especially in leftist ally nations which have been showered with his country’s oil wealth.

Jaua will ... Read More

ROGER NORIEGA

When an imperious bully like Fidel Castro starts to fear, his instinct is to try to sow fear among his enemies. Today, with his student and benefactor, Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez, dying of cancer, what the Cuban dictator fears most is that his bankrupt regime in Havana is about to lose billions in critical aid and oil.

So, in an April 27 essay entitled, What Obama Knows, Castro conjures a “river of blood” in Venezuela if the Chavista movement is forced from power by the “oligarchy” or “overthrown” by the United States.

It would come as a surprise to President Obama that he is advocating the overthrow of the Chávez government. The passive policy of the U.S. government is to maintain commercial relations with that country and to wish the Venezuelan people well. What has Castro so alarmed is the intensified effort of U.S. law enforcement — primarily the Drug Enforcement Administration and ... Read More

ROGER NORIEGA

Cuando un matón déspota como Fidel Castro comienza a tener miedo, su instinto de sobrevivencia es sembrar el terror entre sus enemigos. Hoy en día, mientras su hijo putativo y benefactor de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, se está muriendo de cáncer, lo que realmente el dictador cubano teme es que su régimen está a punto de perder miles de millones de dólares en ayuda y el petróleo. Por lo tanto, el 27 de abril en un ensayo titulado Lo que Obama sabe, Castro predice que habrá “un río de sangre en Venezuela” si el gobierno chavista es expulsado del poder por la “oligarquía” o “derrocado” por Estados Unidos.

Sería una sorpresa escuchar que el presidente Obama está abogando por el derrocamiento de Chávez. La política pasiva del gobierno de EEUU consiste en mantener relaciones comerciales con Venezuela y desearle el bien a su gente. Lo que alarmó tanto a Castro es el ... Read More

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s absence from the spotlight, his creation of a formal advisory committee, and media leaks of medical details are feeding speculation of a downturn in his nearly year-long battle with cancer.

With a presidential election looming for October 7 in the OPEC nation ruled by Chavez since 1999, Venezuelans are obsessively focused on his condition and fretting about the consequences of a possible succession struggle.

Should the rumors be true – and they are fiercely denied by government officials – an end to the Chavez era would shake Venezuela and have major repercussions around Latin America where leftist allies like Cuba depend on his oil-fuelled largesse.

Spending most of the last six weeks in Havana for radiotherapy treatment, Chavez has only been seen once live in public since mid-April – and he ended that short address on Monday choking on his words and with tears in his eyes.

“These are not ... Read More

CARACAS, Venezuela – As Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez clings to power while battling cancer, the country’s future is further clouded by unbridled government spending that has no relation to the budget, financial analysts said.

The strongest criticism of the government’s spending spree comes in a Fitch Ratings special report that cited “opaque off-budget” expenditure undermining the transparency of Venezuela’s public and external accounts.

Fitch called it a “costly parallel fiscal policy.”

“The growth in off-budget spending has decreased the transparency of Venezuela’s public and external accounts and increased their discretionary character,” Fitch Ratings said in a special report on the Latin American country.

“Information on these funds’ balances, quality of investments and cash flows is limited, thus increasing the challenges to assess the sovereign’s actual financial strengths and vulnerabilities.”

On April 4, Fitch revised Venezuela’s rating outlook to negative from stable.

In addition, Fitch Latin America’s Erich Arispe said, “The policy choice of transferring an increasing share of the ... Read More

BY TIM ELFRINK

Hugo Chavez may have quelled rumors last week that he was near death by appearing on TV looking relatively robust, but some recent political moves have left many in Caracas wondering if he’s going to make it to the presidential elections — and even more worrying, what will happen to Venezuela if he doesn’t.

In recent months Chavez has appointed two top military generals to politically powerful posts. As he returns to Cuba this week for more treatment, some now ask if he’s laying the groundwork for a military junta to seize power if he dies. “People are obviously positioning themselves,” Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue, tells CNN. “Chavez is very well-placed to announce his successor. But he really doesn’t want to name his successor because it would be an indication that not only is he a lame duck, but he’s a goner.”

The most likely military figure to grasp ... Read More