Content from IASW Contributors

Inside the ‘Cubanochavista’ Electoral Machine

Roger NoriegaCAs the facts behind Nicolás Maduro’s fabricated electoral “victory” on April 14 are disclosed, his legitimacy and ability to govern will be decimated. Reams of confidential official documents obtained from Venezuelan sources reveal the existence of a sophisticated political machine – developed and managed by Cuban advisors – that gives chavista party bosses an unfair advantage in mobilizing their voters and manipulating election results.

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Entendiendo la maquinaria electoral ‘Cubanochavista’

Roger NoriegaA medida que se dan a conocer los hechos detrás de la “victoria” electoral fabricada de Nicolás Maduro, se ha ido desvaneciendo su legitimidad y capacidad de gobernar. Resmas de documentos oficiales confidenciales obtenidos de fuentes venezolanas revelan la existencia de una maquinaria política sofisticada- desarrollada y gestionada por asesores cubanos– que le da a los jefes chavistas una ventaja injusta en la movilización de votantes y en la manipulación de resultados.

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Red State Dems Defect on Keystone

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Washington Free Beacon

BY LACHLAN MARKAY

Two red state Democratic senators signaled support Thursday for legislation authorizing the Keystone XL pipeline opposed by President Barack Obama, Democratic Party leaders, and influential Democratic donors.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D., N.D.) told the Washington Free Beacon in a statement that she will support legislation passed by the House on Wednesday to approve construction of the pipeline if it comes to the Senate floor.

“Yesterday’s vote on H.R. 3 in the House is another clear indication the majority of those in Congress believe it is time to move forward with the Keystone XL Pipeline,” Heitkamp said.

The legislation, authored by Rep. Lee Terry (R., Neb.), would circumvent presidential approval of the project, which would carry crude oil from Canada through a 1,700-mile pipeline to refineries on the Gulf coast.

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D., La.) also said she will support the bill, telling the Free Beacon, “our national and economic security will be bolstered with the construction of ... Read More

Peru warns of economic downturn

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
Financial Times

BY NAOMI MAPSTONE

Peru’s stellar economic growth is facing a downward correction amid the end of the commodities supercycle and a slowdown in top trade partner China, according to Luis Miguel Castilla, the country’s finance minister.

“The correction is between 6.5 towards around 6 per cent,” Mr Castilla told the FT in an interview.

“Obviously for us China is critical … if China is able to manage a soft landing towards growing at 8 per cent and sustaining that growth, that should help us to also ‘soft land’ our growth.”

His comments came as Peru on Thursday logged its slowest first-quarter growth in three years, at 4.8 per cent year-on-year, leading some economists to predict prolonged slower growth.

“The big picture is that growth is unlikely to return to the 7-8 per cent rates witnessed since 2009,” said Capital Economics in a research note. “Peru’s economy has benefited from an unprecedented decade-long mining boom, fuelled by Chinese demand for ... Read More

Latin American Trade Bloc Cuts Tariffs

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »

BY DARCY CROWE & ROBERT KOZAK

CALI, Colombia—The leaders of a regional trade bloc that encompasses Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico moved Thursday to lower import tariffs among the member countries, a decision that could boost economic integration efforts in Latin America.

The Pacific Alliance, as the group is known, includes some of the most open economies in Latin America. The member countries already have free-trade pacts with each other, but the leaders are moving now to simplify the trade rules and unify regulatory standards for industries like agriculture.

The Pacific Alliance nations agreed to the elimination of 90% of all import tariffs among the member countries, a proposal that will have to be approved by June 30 by lawmakers in some of the nations.

The remaining 10% will be more gradually eliminated, although Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto said that this will take place “in the shortest time frame possible.”

Colombian President Juan Manuel ... Read More

Brazil to Auction Rights to Largest Oil Prospect

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal

BY JEFF FICK

RIO DE JANEIRO—Brazil plans to auction off its largest-ever offshore oil discovery in October, selling exploration and production rights for a single prospect that is estimated to hold between eight billion and 12 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil at the country’s first presalt-bid round, regulators said Thursday.

The presalt region lies in deep Atlantic Ocean waters off Brazil’s southeast coast, with large deposits of oil trapped beneath a salt layer several miles below the surface.

Libra, as the prospect is known, is larger than the Lula field that started Brazil’s presalt craze when it was announced in 2007, said Magda Chambriard, director of Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency, or ANP. Lula is estimated to hold recoverable reserves of between five billion and eight billion barrels, Ms. Chambriard said.

“I’ve never seen anything similar [to Libra],” Ms. Chambriard said, noting that her 32-year career in the oil industry started when Brazil was ... Read More

Costa Rica and Guatemala move closer to joining Pacific Alliance bloc

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Miami Herald

BY JIM WYSS

BOGOTA, Colombia – The four nations of the Pacific Alliance may be getting some company as they aim to turn the fledgling bloc into a regional powerhouse and boost trade with Asia. On Thursday, the presidents of Costa Rica and Guatemala said they hoped to become full-fledged members of the group within months.

The Alliance — formed by Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru — held its seventh summit in Cali, Colombia Thursday amid aspirations that it might turn into a preeminent organization in a region stiff with competing blocs.

One of the prerequisites to joining the two-year-old Alliance is to have free-trade agreements with all members. Late Wednesday, Costa Rica and Colombia signed a free-trade deal that unlocked the entry door for the Central American nation.

During a meeting with some 400 regional business leaders Thursday, Guatemalan President Otto Pérez said his country has free-trade deals with Mexico, Colombia, and Chile and ... Read More

Maduro’s confused signals bode ill for Venezuela’s recovery

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
UPI

CARACAS, Venezuela, May 23 (UPI) – Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is grappling with embarrassing shortages of consumer goods, in some cases rated to be worse than under Hugo Chavez, who died of cancer in March.

This week the National Assembly passed funding that could make toilet paper available to Venezuelans.

Maduro, who succeeded Chavez after a snap election in April, has pledged to solve Venezuela’s endemic problems of shortages and slow growth and has also attempted to distance himself occasionally from Chavez.

Conflicting statements on Chavez’s controversial legacy of an ongoing Bolivarian revolution have divided opinion within the ruling ranks, government and opposition media indicated.

Last week Maduro called for normalization of diplomatic ties with the United States, in defiance of Chavist hard-liners who remain suspicious of any softening toward Washington.

Maduro’s aides are sensitive to reports highlighting problems such as empty shelves in supermarkets, while the opposition under Henrique Capriles is quick to capitalize on the government’s alleged ... Read More

What’s Behind Venezuela’s Toilet Paper Shortage?

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Atlantic

BY ALASDAIR BAVERSTOCK

Last month, Venezuela elected a president on the recommendation of Hugo Chavez. But as the problems the country faces loom larger, President Nicolas Maduro is finding his predecessor’s one-man show a difficult act to follow.

It was inevitable that whoever succeeded Hugo Chavez risked being seen as “egg without salt,” a popular Venezuelan expression used to describe those lacking charisma. So to a country more inclined to be accepting of economic and social troubles, as long as there’s some juicy political scandal to be discussed, there’s nothing quite so damning as being as a huevo sin sal, a label Maduro is rapidly acquiring.

The signs were there even as the election results were being announced. The huge double-digit polling lead Maduro enjoyed over his rival, Henrique Capriles, at the start of the campaign was whittled down to a mere 1.5 percent margin of victory come election day — a sorry contrast ... Read More

Business in Cuba: A new course

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Economist

AFTER the 1959 revolution Fidel Castro declared that golf was a “bourgeois” hobby, unsuitable for communists. Most of the island’s courses were built on, and no new ones have been developed since. But the government has just given the go-ahead to a new golf resort, in what it claims is “the start of a whole new policy to increase the presence of golf in Cuba”. In the same week it pressed ahead with the prosecutions of several foreign businessmen for corruption. The developments, which seem to be linked, show how Cuba is changing its attitude to business.

The $350m Carbonera Club, near the beach resort of Varadero, is to be developed by Esencia, a British company. A few days before the project was approved, Esencia had staged a golf tournament which was won by Mr Castro’s son Antonio. The development will include residential properties available for purchase by foreigners. Other big ... Read More

South America re-election rash: Ecuador’s Correa takes office for the third consecutive time

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
MercoPress

However Correa pledged this week he will not run for re-election and trusts that some candidate will emerge from the ruling party or cadres to continue in 2017 with the “citizens’ revolution” he launched.

Of the democratically elected presidents in the last twenty years, Chavez was the one that spent most time in office: August 1999 to March 2013, when he died of cancer.

Because of his delicate health condition Chavez was unable to take the oath of office on January 10 as mandated by the Venezuelan constitution, but Congress, the Electoral Court and Supreme Court (packed with Chavistas) ruled it was not necessary since it was a re-re-election.

Correa took office for the first time in 2007 and was re-elected in 2009 elections convened following the approval of a new constitutions and as of Friday will have another four years until 2017.

The new Ecuadorean constitution only allows one consecutive re-election and Correa ... Read More

Xi to visit Latin America and the Caribbean

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
Global Times

BY YANG JINGJIE

Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay state visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico from May 31 to June 6, the foreign ministry announced on Tuesday.

Hong Lei, foreign ministry spokesperson, told a press briefing on Tuesday that they will be the first state visits to Latin America and the Caribbean by Xi.

Hong said Xi’s visit to Trinidad and Tobago will be the first visit to an English-speaking Caribbean country by Chinese president, and that the country is an important partner of China in the region.

Regarding Costa Rica, Hong said it is the only country in continental Central America that has established diplomatic ties with China.

Hong noted that Mexico is an important emerging economy and is also China’s strategic partner.

Yang Zhimin, a researcher with the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that the three countries had been ... Read More

Sen. Robert Menendez: How to deal with the growing security crisis in Central America

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Miami Herald

BY SEN. ROBERT MENENDEZ

During the last decade in countries like Brazil, Chile and other areas in Latin America, changing economic policies and innovative social inclusion programs are giving rise to economic growth built on exports and an increasingly prosperous middle class. But in Central America, a region of growing strategic importance to the United States, many countries face a bourgeoning security and law-enforcement crisis that demands greater attention from us all.

A few weeks ago, I visited a river that divides Guatemala and Mexico — a tree-lined river beside a small Guatemalan town, a lazy-flowing river, and, as I learned, a dangerous river.

I saw upwards of 25 rafts ferrying contraband ashore in makeshift boats. Young boys floating barrels of cheap Mexican petroleum were undeterred by border patrols in the light of day. Just imagine what crosses that river under the cover of darkness.

Getting our Central America policy right will require stronger ... Read More

After Chávez: Restoring the Rule of Law in Venezuela – Podcast

| May 24th, 2013 | No Comments »
The Federalist Society

After his election as Venezuela’s President in 1999, the late Hugo Chávez oversaw a gradual, but unmistakable, consolidation of power.  At the time of his death, Mr. Chávez controlled nearly all important institutions in Venezuela.  Although the Chávez regime was unchallenged in its exercise of power – using this power to arrest and detain opponents, silence opposition media, and illegally expropriate billions in private property – it did so under the guise of respect for the rule of law.  This amounted to little more than form over substance.  After Mr. Chávez’s death, and with the election of President Nicolás Maduro on April 14, 2013, what are the prospects for a return to democracy and genuine rule of law in Venezuela?

Featuring:

Hon. Roger F. Noriega, Founder and Managing Director, VisiónAméricas and Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization of American States; and former Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Moderator: Mr. ... Read More

Venezuela’s Turmoil No Laughing Matter

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal

BY CHARLES ROTH

The repercussions from Venezuela’s economic policies are providing journalists with excellent fodder for humorous headlines, replete with puns.

“Venezuela’s Government Moves to Relieve Toilet Paper Shortages,” reads the title of an Agence France Presse story Wednesday.

The “moves” were among the first taken by the country’s National Assembly, which reconvened Tuesday after a three-week hiatus following a lawmakers brawl that left a handful of opposition members bloodied. The legislature authorized a $79 million credit for the purchase of imported personal  hygiene products, including “39 million rolls of toilet paper, 50 million sanitary napkins, 10 million bars of soap, 17 million disposable diapers and three million tubes of toothpaste,” the AFP reported.

Venezuela’s travails no doubt make for colorful copy. But the country’s growing turmoil–both economic and political–is no laughing matter. Foreign Policy ran a blog post last week with this sobering title: “Is Venezuela becoming a failed state?”

The question isn’t far-fetched.

Why are there shortages of ... Read More

Two Iranian presidential candidates wanted for 1994 terrorist attack in Argentina

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
AEI

After the government of Argentine President Cristina Kirchner agreed in January to work with Iran to form a so-called “truth commission” to investigate the 1994 bombing of the Jewish community center (AMIA) in which eight Iranian officials are implicated, many wondered what these two countries were up to. Yesterday, it was revealed that two of the contenders to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are persons named as suspects in the murderous AMIA attack. Apparently, the “truth commission” farce was part of a cynical campaign to launder the image of two accused terrorists running to be Iran’s next president. It remains to be seen whether Kirchner’s role in this scandalous exercise is due to stupidity or treachery.

It was made public yesterday that Mohsen Rezai and Ali Akbar Velayati were among eight men pre-selected by Iran’s Guardian Council as qualified candidates for the June 14 presidential election. Both are named by Argentine investigators as playing a ... Read More

Latin American geoeconomics: A continental divide

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
The Economist

The region is falling in behind two alternative blocks: the market-led Pacific Alliance and the more statist Mercosur

ON MAY 23rd in the Colombian city of Cali the presidents of four Latin American countries—Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru—will sign an agreement removing tariffs on 90% of their merchandise trade. They will also agree on a timetable of no more than seven years for eliminating tariffs on the remaining 10%. They have already removed visa requirements for each other’s citizens and will proclaim their aspiration to move swiftly towards setting up a common market.

The Pacific Alliance, as the group calls itself, is “the most exciting thing going on in Latin America today”, according to Felipe Larraín, Chile’s finance minister. Some outsiders think so, too. Costa Rica and Panama want to join; Canada’s prime minister, Stephen Harper, and his Spanish counterpart, Mariano Rajoy, have said they will attend the Cali meeting as observers.

Behind ... Read More

Colombia says 10 soldiers killed in attack by rebels who hold Canadian mining executive

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in the Associated Press

BOGOTA, Colombia — At least 10 Colombian soldiers were killed and six wounded Wednesday in a pre-dawn attack on an army patrol with homemade explosives by the country’s second-largest leftist rebel band, the military said.

The 2 a.m. attack by the National Liberation Army, or ELN, occurred in a rural area of Chitaga in the northeastern state of Norte de Santander, said the regional divisional commander, Gen. Juan Pablo Amaya.

He said two of the wounded were in critical condition and one soldier was missing and presumed captured by the rebels.

It was the biggest blow to Colombia’s military since February, when seven soldiers died in combat with the larger rebel movement, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and came on the eve of a regional trade summit in the western city of Cali that the leaders of Peru, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Spain and Canada were expected to attend.

Amaya ... Read More

Canadian goes on trial in Havana for corruption scandal

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
The Miami Herald

BY JULIAN SHER & JUAN O. TAMAYO

When Sarkis Yacoubian walks into a court room in downtown Havana Thursday to face corruption charges that could send him to prison for 12 years the Canadian businessman will have a high-powered diplomat keeping a close eye on his trial — Canada’s ambassador to Cuba.

As the Toronto Star revealed last week, Yacoubian, who ran a $30 million transport and trading company called Tri-Star Caribbean, was indicted by Cuban prosecutors in April on three counts of bribery, tax evasion and “activities damaging to the economy.”

After almost two years in custody without charges, Yacoubian’s fate will be decided by a panel of five judges in a trial that is expected to last no longer than two days.

In an apparent signal about just how seriously Ottawa views the case, the Department of Foreign Affairs this week informed Yacoubian’s lawyers in Canada that Ambassador Matthew Levin — who ... Read More

Venezuela to Curtail Dollars

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
Article originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal

BY KEJAL VYAS

CARACAS—Venezuela’s economy, which is grappling with rapid currency depreciation and shortages of basic consumer goods due to a lack of dollars distributed by the government, won’t be granted access to the same number of U.S. dollars this year as it was the previous year, the head of the central bank said Wednesday.

“We can’t go crazy and do what was being done last year when around $59 billion were distributed,” bank President Edmee Betancourt told reporters in comments broadcast on local television station Globovision. “What was being done up until July of last year was practically an outrage. That error we’re not going to commit again.”

State spending on imports last year surged 27% to keep the economy flowing ahead of late President Hugo Chávez’s successful October re-election bid. But the splurge authorized by the populist leader, who died in March, led many economists to predict a reeling-in of profligate ... Read More

Venezuela Lives the Worst of the Worlds

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
Latin American Herald Tribune

The shortage crisis generated by Venezuela’s communist regime over the past 14 years of Hugo Chávez’s government seems to be inducing Nicolás Maduro to make incipient approaches on some businessmen of the nation’s productive sector.

It was breaking news early last week the meeting Maduro held with foodmaker and brewery Empresas Polar CEO, Lorenzo Mendoza, after an agreement of joint cooperation within a climate of dialogue and mutual respect.

The Government also made several announcements, among which stand out:

The creation of 11 technical roundtables for businessmen and officials from several ministries intended to address different problems, as well as for officials of Cadivi (the Government’s foreign exchange regulating body) and the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). The food shortage-related roundtables kicked off on Monday with the participation of more than 500 businessmen, where they addressed the problems and possible solutions to the shortage crisis, the allocation of foreign currency and the hurdles ... Read More

In bloc-happy Latin America, the Pacific Alliance hopes to stand out

| May 23rd, 2013 | No Comments »
The Miami Herald

BY JIM WYSS

Latin America is fond of carving itself up into an alphabet soup of regional trading blocs and political configurations. There’s the CELAC, UNASUR, Mercosur, ALBA and the Andean Community, just to name a few.

But the two-year old Pacific Alliance is already something of a standout. On Thursday, the presidents of Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile, which form the Alliance, will be meeting in Cali, Colombia.

The group is hoping to tear down business barriers and allow the free flow of goods, services and labor. It also wants to be the regional nexus for trade with Asia.

Unlike other regional blocs, which are essentially “political talk shops,” the Pacific Alliance can boast results, said Eric Farnsworth, of the Council of the Americas.

Already, Mexico has dropped visa requirements for Colombians and Peruvians, the four nations share investment and commercial offices in some nations, and are ready to begin sharing some embassies in ... Read More

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